College Hoops Handicapping

LE DÉFI

Sports handicapping is not about finding a single edge that one team has on another. Like an intricate puzzle, it's about finding several pieces that add up to many significant edges. For instance, if a team has better guard play than the opponent, that may be one edge, but it's not enough to make the assessment .5?This team will use its backcourt edge to cover the number the next game..5?

Rather, it's about piecing the whole puzzle together. If a team has a terrific offensive backcourt, but the opponent has good defensive guards, then it's suddenly a wash, probably no edge for either side. Just as if one team has a significant rebounding edge but doesn't defend the perimeter well. They may control the boards one game, but if the opponent happens to play a breakneck running style that lives by the three-pointer, that could neutralize any apparent edge the other team has on the glass.

That's a problem that Louisiana Lafayette is having this season. Lafayette has the reputation of being a strong rebounding team in the Sun Belt, and they are again behind big guard Dwayne Mitchell (16 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and 6-foot-10 Michael Southall (14.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg). However, their perimeter defense has been terrible all season and opponents are killing them from long range, despite their inside muscle. Notice that Lafayette is 5-14 overall and a money-burning 3-14 against the spread! Oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough for this team that won 20-games last season. Earth to the oddsmakers: This is not the same team!

Finding those winning opportunities look BetBubbles against the spread is about putting many pieces together. Take Saturday, when I released my ACC Game of the Year on Virginia Tech playing at Wake Forest. In that game, oddsmakers were down a bit on Virginia Tech because they had been hammered by Duke the last game, 80-67. While Duke pounded Virginia Tech on the glass, Wake doesn't have the kind of inside muscle. And Virginia Tech's backcourt of Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon had, in my view, an edge on Wake's backcourt. But the edges didn't end there. Virginia Tech has been competitive under Seth Greenburg all season, especially on the road at 3-1 ATS, while overvalued Wake was 1-9 against the spread at home!

Wake was shorthanded, too, without second-leading scorer Justin Gray out. Like UL-Lafayette in the previous example, Wake Forest is a team that was so much better last season (27-6) and public perception still thinks of them as being an ACC power. But this is not the same team. I concluded my analysis with, .5?It's easy to make a great case for the dog taking huge points!.5? Virginia Tech not only covered as a +9 dog but won the game, 76-70. Virginia Tech's frontcourt didn't do much, but three Hokie guards scored 61 of their 76 points.

As you can see, it's not one piece of data that stands out, but several key pieces of information strung together. Some teams strengths can be negated by the opponent's strengths. But when I find a game that has a slew of significant edges, that's when I step up. Remember, luck can be less of a factor in sports wagering because luck is residue of hard work. If you put that hard work in!

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